Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s midterm elections is also a win for Trump

Javier Milei, Argentina’s self-styled anarcho-capitalist president, has secured a resounding victory in legislative midterm elections. Following a year marked by radical austerity, economic upheaval and political scandals, this outcome is nothing short of extraordinary.

Milei’s La Libertad Avanza coalition defied expectations to secure more than 40% of the nationwide vote, substantially outperforming the main opposition Fuerza Patria coalition’s roughly 32%. This triumph bolsters the president’s legislative power and, critically, positions him as a strong contender for reelection in 2027.

The elections were widely interpreted as a referendum on Milei’s tenure, which began in December 2023. His victory is a testament to his successful strategy of polarisation and his ability to present himself as the sole purveyor of hope and “redemption” amid prolonged economic stagnation and declining real incomes.

Yet the narrative of this win is also inextricably linked to a dramatic intervention by the US government to stabilise Argentina’s shaky economy. This intervention transformed a local legislative contest into a global geopolitical flashpoint.

Milei’s first year as president was characterised by a “chainsaw” approach to public spending, cutting tens of thousands of government jobs and freezing public investments. These measures were painful, contributing to business closures and job losses. But they also delivered tangible – albeit fragile – macroeconomic gains.

Annual inflation, which peaked at 289% in April 2024, was brought down to about 32% by October 2025. The country also achieved its first fiscal surplus in more than a decade. However, the more immediate electoral lifeline was the government’s intense focus on managing the price of the US dollar.

The longstanding instability of Argentina’s own currency, the peso, coupled with frequent high inflation has created a dual system where the peso is used for daily transactions there but the dollar is preferred for savings and larger purchases, like real estate.

And Milei’s administration has gone to great lengths to control the exchange rate, thereby engineering a temporary but palpable sense of stability just ahead of the polls. This stability was crucial for voters battered by volatility.

It also came at a high cost: a heavy reliance on Washington’s financial backing. As Argentina’s central bank reserves dwindled and a currency crisis loomed, the US government – under President Donald Trump – moved with speed to rescue the situation.

A US$20 billion (£15 billion) currency swap agreement between the US Treasury and Argentina’s central bank was formalised on October 20. This financial assistance, which was quickly followed by an additional announced facility of up to US$20 billion sourced from private banks and sovereign funds, was undeniably timed to shore up Milei’s position before the election.

Trump explicitly linked the continuation of this aid to a Milei victory, warning: “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina”. Milei’s win is a clear victory for his ideological ally in Washington, who championed the financial lifeline as a strategic move to support a “great philosophy” and “make Argentina great again”.

The US government’s overt and decisive intervention marks a shift not seen in Latin America since perhaps the cold war. It signals that Argentina, and Latin America more broadly, is back on the geopolitical chessboard.

For the US, this is less about ideological affinity and more about strategic resource competition. Latin America holds vast reserves of natural resources, including critical minerals such as lithium that are essential components of the global clean energy supply chain.

Washington’s support for Milei is a move to challenge China’s expanding economic and political foothold in the region. It ensures that a key resource provider and trade partner remains firmly within the US orbit. Milei is, in turn, keen to facilitate American investment in key sectors such as oil, gas and mining. These sectors are all central to his economic recovery plans.

A reckoning for the opposition

The election results have definitively confirmed a deep and persistent political polarisation in Argentina. The centre-left opposition’s traditional strategy – waiting for the incumbent’s austerity and scandals to generate discontent – failed to deliver a victory. This should force a period of fundamental soul-searching for the opposition.

But, in my opinion, Milei’s success is not simply the product of a “crisis of representation”, where traditional parties are failing. He instead appears to be a faithful representative of a new, reactive global society. This society is deeply sceptical of institutional mediation, preferring strong executive leaders and perceived “problem solvers” over consensus-based politics.

Read more: Argentina: despite the scandals, Milei's politics are here to stay

Milei’s radical experiment has survived its first great electoral test. His party, despite its limited base in the Argentine Congress, secured enough seats to be a formidable legislative force. This means it is now capable of upholding presidential vetoes and advancing critical tax and labour reforms.

He has also set a powerful new trajectory for the country – one that is tightly bound to the geopolitical strategies of the US, its indispensable new partner. As I have argued before, Milei’s politics are here to stay in Argentina and Latin America.

Juan Pablo Ferrero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.