Judith Collins believes the Northland seat is National's -- by a country mile

Her confidence comes on the back of a Colmar Brunton poll, giving National's Matt King 46 percent support.

New Zealand First's Shane Jones is a long way behind, with just 15 percent.

Collins says Jones should be even lower.

She says she's seen the way people react to both candidates up north, and thinks 15-percent is generous to Shane Jones -- and that he's closer to eight.