UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is in trouble because of Jeffrey Epstein — but not because he's been named or implicated in any crimes in the most recent batch of the Epstein files.
Instead, his future as the prime minister appears to be hanging in the balance because of his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson — known in some circles as the "Prince of Darkness" — as the British ambassador to the United States.
On Friday, local time, UK police raided two properties linked to Lord Mandelson. A spokesperson said the searches were part of an ongoing investigation into misconduct in public office offences.
Political opponents, and even some colleagues in the Labour Party, have called for Sir Keir's resignation.
Little more than two years ago, he led Labour to a landslide election victory and the largest majority government in the UK in 25 years.
So, what changed? And how did Lord Mandelson's woes impact Sir Keir?
The 'Prince of Darkness'
Lord Mandelson was known as a "fixer" within the UK's New Labour movement, which gave rise to Sir Tony Blair and his landslide election victory in 1997.
"My project will be complete when the Labour Party learns to love Peter Mandelson," the former prime minister once declared to The Telegraph in 1996.
Lord Mandelson's mastery of politics even earned him the nickname the "Prince of Darkness".
British politics expert and emeritus professor at the University of Adelaide Clement Macintyre said Lord Mandelson was a key figure in backroom politics who helped build the Labour Party as it is known today.
"Labour moved to the centre, and Mandelson was a key figure in overseeing that process," Professor Macintyre said.
But Lord Mandelson had a chequered political career even before his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Epstein came to light.
Lord Mandelson was forced to resign from his ministry portfolio in 1998 after it was revealed he received a secret loan from a colleague.
He was back working in government the next year, but resigned again in 2001 following allegations he had helped obtain passports for Indian-born tycoons, the Hinduja brothers, in return for a donation — a subsequent inquiry cleared Lord Mandelson of any wrongdoing.
Lord Mandelson's most recent political appointment in December 2024 was to Washington.
His friendship with Epstein was public at the time of his appointment, but the extent of the relationship wasn't revealed until more recently.
Relationship with Epstein
Lord Mandelson was stripped of his ambassadorship in September after documents emerged revealing he had sent supportive messages in 2008 to Epstein after he pleaded guilty to sex offences.
But the US Department of Justice's most recent release of 3 million documents related to Epstein shed even more light on the relationship.
Among the Epstein files are photos that show Lord Mandelson in his underwear, separate images of him with Epstein, and emails showing Epstein had sent thousands of dollars to Lord Mandelson's partner in 2009. The emails and images have not been independently verified by the ABC.
The files also included emails suggesting Lord Mandelson had sent market-sensitive information to Epstein.
Police are investigating allegations of Lord Mandelson's misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Epstein.
The criminal investigation does not mean he will be arrested, charged or convicted.
But, it has become a political headache for the prime minister, Sir Keir, who appointed Lord Mandelson as ambassador, with doubts rising over his leadership from both within and outside his party.
PM under pressure
Professor Macintyre said Labour was already facing a steep decline in public confidence before the Epstein revelations, due to perceptions the government was failing to address key issues, including economic issues, under Sir Keir's leadership.
"The latest poll had him [Sir Keir] as the lowest approval rating on the record of polling as prime ministers," Professor Macintyre said.
"The Labour government … seems to be staggering from one crisis to the next and never manages to find any clear water."
Professor Macintyre also said Labour was also being threatened by the rise of the UK Reform party under the "father of Brexit" Nigel Farage.
"The ineffectiveness of the prime minister is coming at a time when both the old major parties are in fear of their long-term survival," he said.
And, despite having an overwhelming majority in parliament, Professor Macintyre said Labour had claimed its seats in 2022 with a reduced share of the overall vote.
"It's what we might call a wide majority in the sense of numbers, but incredibly shallow," he said.
And those foundations appear to be crumbling amid the Epstein saga as Sir Keir is being squeezed by his own colleagues within Labour, including Labour MP Rachael Maskell, who told the BBC Sir Keir had "no choice" but to step down.
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch has also described the prime minister's position as "clearly untenable".
Starmer's time 'is limited'
Sir Keir apologised to Epstein's victims this week while claiming Lord Mandelson had lied to him about the extent of his relationship with Epstein.
"I am sorry. Sorry for what was done to you. Sorry that so many people with power failed you," Sir Keir said.
"Sorry for having believed Mandelson's lies and appointed him. And sorry that even now, you're forced to watch this story unfold in public again."
But anger has continued to grow within Sir Keir's own ranks, with some political aspirants seeing the discord as an opportunity, according to Professor Macintyre.
"I think we can be reasonably confident that Starmer's time as prime minister is limited," Professor Macintyre said.
"The only doubt is how soon that will take place."
While some names have been floated as potential challengers, including former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and health secretary Wes Streeting, Professor Macintyre said no key Labour stars were obvious candidates for the top job.
"So, while many members will be anxious about seeing him [Sir Keir] off and resetting with a new leader, they might be hesitant if they're not clear beforehand who that leader will be," he said.
"Timing will be a factor in all of these considerations, as well as who, and so that might keep Starmer there — in an insecure way — for a bit longer."
