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15 Jul 2025 11:17
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  •   Home > News > International

    Is New Caledonia's agreement, championed by Macron, a 'new chapter' or a 'betrayal'?

    Observers say regardless of the enthusiasm of French President Emmanuel Macron, the deal faces a long and uncertain path before it can take effect. So, how did it get to this point, and what needs to happen for it to take effect?


    French President Emmanuel Macron hailed it a historic "new chapter" for New Caledonia, bringing a peaceful end to devastating turmoil that has rocked the Pacific territory.

    Leaders from New Caledonia, one of Australia's closest neighbours, emerged from marathon talks near Paris on Saturday with a proposal aiming to settle its recent conflict over the question of independence from France.

    The deal would create a "state of New Caledonia" within France, and a New Caledonian nationality.

    Mr Macron called it a "bet on trust", leading to a "peaceful relationship with France".

    But the draft agreement stops short of granting independence from France, and involves significant compromises from parties on each side of the debate.

    Observers say regardless of Mr Macron's enthusiasm, the deal faces a long and uncertain path before it can take effect.

    They also say the proposal has no clear parallels, and will need explaining to the New Caledonian public, set to vote on it in a February referendum.

    So, how did it get to this point, how would the agreement work, and what needs to happen for it to take effect?

    How did it get here?

    Pro- and anti-independence groups, along with French officials, were locked in negotiations for 10 days.

    They were tasked with reaching a deal settling New Caledonia's future relationship with France.

    Ever since a majority of New Caledonians rejected independence from France in three referendums — including in a controversial third vote boycotted by pro-independence groups — leaders had not been able to agree on the way forward.

    Finally, parties resumed talks in February, a milestone that was lauded as an achievement in itself after tensions spilled over into violent unrest last year.

    But progress was initially slow, and despite efforts from France's Overseas Minister Manuel Valls to encourage compromise, early talks in New Caledonia didn't lead to an agreement.

    The discussions then shifted to Bougival, near Paris, this month when Mr Macron convened and parties tried again.

    Again, it appeared there would be no breakthrough, according to Denise Fisher, former Australian consul-general in New Caledonia.

    "It looked like everything was just going sour," she said.

    The talks changed course on Friday afternoon, when pro-independence leaders consulted with their political bureau until the early hours of the morning, before meeting with Mr Valls at 1am.

    When he convened the rest of the group at 6am on Saturday, a draft agreement was made.

    That evening, the parties announced the accord in a gilded hall at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

    How would the deal work?

    The 13-page agreement calls for a ?state of Caledonia? within the French Republic, which would be enshrined in France's constitution and could be recognised by other nations.

    It would also establish a "Caledonian nationality?, letting residents combine that status with French nationality.

    The deal calls for an economic and financial recovery pact that would include a renewal of the territory's nickel processing capabilities.

    A special congress will be held to finalise next steps, which could include more sovereignty for New Caledonia over issues of international affairs, security and justice, according to excerpts published by New Caledonia's public broadcaster.

    The accord could also eventually allow New Caledonians to change the territory's name, flag and hymn.

    But it doesn't grant independence to New Caledonia, whose status as a "state" would be inscribed within French laws.

    While it would give it some measure of autonomy over its foreign affairs, these would have limits stopping it from clashing with France's interests overseas, experts say.

    One potential clash could be the destination of its vast nickel reserves — which New Caledonia might want to sell within the region, but that France wants to stay within the European Union, Pacific journalist said.

    And under the agreement New Caledonia residents will, in the future, be allowed to vote after living 10 years in the archipelago — one of the primary issues that ignited the territory's civil unrest last year.

    It would differ from deals between other Pacific nations and their former colonial rulers, such as the "free association" agreement that gives Cook Islands broader power over its affairs from New Zealand.

    But it remained unclear how the arrangement — creating a state within a nation state — would work, Mr Maclellan said.

    He said there was no clear parallel elsewhere.

    "There's absolutely no precedent in French law — and this whole deal is framed in French law," he said.

    What's been the response?

    Mr Macron — and the parties striking the deal — have been eager to promote it.

    Mr Valls described it as "intelligent compromise".

    Emmanuel Tjibaou, New Caledonia's pro-independence member of the French National Assembly and son of the late independence movement leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou, said the accord would help "us get out of the spiral of violence".

    He described a ''difficult path'' ahead but one that would allow Kanaks and other Caledonians to move forward together while mending divisions.

    On the anti-independence side, politician Nicolas Metzdorf called it a compromise born of "demanding dialogue", and described the Caledonian nationality as a "real concession''.

    In Paris, the proposal will need support from France's National Assembly, which will vote on enshrining the changes in the constitution.

    And, it will need to pass a referendum in New Caledonia, where the proposal has already met backlash from some quarters.

    Those who signed the draft agreement admitted during a meeting with Mr Macron on Saturday evening that they were struggling to win over opponents of the deal.

    New Caledonian journalist Brigitte Whaap said while members of the public were relieved there had been progress and an agreement was proposed, some members of the pro- and anti-independence groups felt differently.

    "They are the ones who are feeling the most sensitive to it," she said.

    "They're feeling betrayed, really upset about this situation."

    Philippe Blaise, the anti-independence first vice-president of Southern Province government, said the agreement "crossed a red line" by recognising a "Caledonian state" and a "distinct nationality", which he said was incompatible with French unity.

    Some pro-independence activists also took to social media to condemn the deal.

    Brenda Wanabo-Ipeze, a leader of the pro-independence group CCAT, currently incarcerated in France, said: "This text was signed without us. It does not bind us."

    Melanie Atapo, president of the pro-independence USTKE union, which represents Kanak people, said she was "surprised" by the agreement and that the signatories should "come back to share with the bases before signing".

    Joel Kasarerhou, president of civil society group Construire Autrement (Build Differently), called the agreement "stillborn", describing it as "lacking ambition and vision".

    Mr Kasarerhou said the youth at the heart of the May 2024 uprising had been "forgotten or barely mentioned".

    He feared another "May 13" — the date the 2024 riots began.

    The pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) said in a statement on Monday that the agreement included "major advances towards the objective of bringing together, over time, all the elements of sovereignty".

    "At a difficult time for our country, marked by a deep political, economic and social crisis, we, the group mandated by FLNKS have assumed responsibility," it said.

    "All the elements set out in the draft agreement will be submitted to our structures for approval, with a view to a collective debate on the next steps to be taken, and to informing the public."

    Mr Maclellan said political leaders now had to return from Paris and sell the agreement to the public.

    '"To ordinary New Caledonians, there's going to be a lot of questions."

    ABC/AFP


    ABC




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