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18 Jul 2025 3:20
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  •   Home > News > International

    How experts say Donald Trump set his own trap on the Jeffrey Epstein files

    Donald Trump's derision of some supporters as "weaklings" is the latest spray in an ongoing attempt to shift the public conversation past calls for the full release of files linked to the Jeffrey Epstein case. Experts say his approach could fall flat with some of his most fervent supporters.


    Donald Trump's derision of some supporters as "weaklings" is the latest spray in an ongoing attempt to shift the public conversation past calls for the full release of files linked to the Jeffrey Epstein case.

    His suggestion that calls for further releases are "stupid" resembles past crisis management tactics the president has employed, but experts say this approach could fall flat with some of his most fervent supporters.

    Here's what's going on.

    Why are MAGA supporters angry?

    A large number of Mr Trump's own MAGA base are angry over an announcement by the Department of Justice that no more files on the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's crimes and his death in prison will be released.

    The department said Epstein did not maintain a "client list" of associates to whom underage girls were trafficked.

    The list has been central to several conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein, and, by extension, beliefs in the existence of a shadowy "deep state" Mr Trump and allies have promised to expose.

    Many stalwart supporters of the president, including conservative commentators Alex Jones and Laura Loomer, have expressed distrust over the administration's announcement that the list does not exist.

    They point to previous comments by Attorney-General Pam Bondi, which appeared to suggest she had the client list on her desk, and the release of a "first phase" of declassified Epstein files, which implied there would be more to come. 

    Where does Trump stand?

    It's unclear.

    While he campaigned on a promise to publish all documents compiled during the investigation into Epstein, he appears now to be supportive of his administration withholding them.

    In the last fortnight, he has oscillated between lashing out at his supporters for their interest in the issue, claiming the case files are a hoax, and suggesting Ms Bondi should publish what she believes to be "credible".

    But none of the strategies have successfully called the MAGA base off the trail.

    A Truth Social post on Saturday, which claimed the Democratic Party had concocted the files to use against him, did little to mollify his furious supporters.

    For the first time in the platform's history, the president was ratioed.

    That is, comments on the post outweighed likes by roughly 4,700 — a sign of widespread disapproval among his most loyal supporters.

    "I don't understand what the interest or what the fascination is," he told reporters on Tuesday when the furore had not died down.

    Asked whether Ms Bondi has told him if his name was in the Epstein files, Mr Trump said no.

    He went on to repeat his claim that there were credibility issues with the documents, suggesting without citing evidence, they were "made up" by former FBI director James Comey and former presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

    "But she's handled it very well, and it's going to be up to her, whatever she thinks is credible, she should release, yeah," he said.

    When it had become clear the hoax claim had not stuck, Mr Trump resorted to hurling insults at his MAGA base.

    "… All these people want to talk about … is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax," he wrote in a screed on Truth Social on Wednesday.

    "Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats (sic) work … because I don't want their support anymore!"

    He later told reporters those calling for the release of files were "some stupid Republicans" who were "wasting their time".

    Trump is 'reaping what he's sown'

    The political crisis has proven to be especially challenging for Trump to hose down, because of its connection to conspiracy theories.

    The value of conspiratorial fabrications is they help people get political power — something Mr Trump has been skilled in exploiting, said Russell Muirhead, who teaches political science at Dartmouth College.

    Mr Trump needs to come forward with truth and transparency on the topic, or risk losing the faith of large segments of his most enthusiastic and devoted supporters, Dr Muirhead said.

    Harry Melkonian, an honorary associate at the United States Studies Centre, told ABC News the president was now "reaping what he's sown".

    "He certainly fed all of this about Epstein, and that he was going to be transparent about it, release everything about it," Dr Melkonian said.

    "And now that he's in a position of authority, he says, 'Well, there's nothing to release', and his attorney-general says there's nothing to release, there is no such list."

    At a conservative student action summit on Friday, right-wing podcaster Steve Bannon estimated Mr Trump was at risk of losing 10 per cent of the MAGA movement if he did not release the promised client list.

    Recent polling suggests the blow to his popularity could be greater.

    A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,290 registered voters published on Wednesday found 35 per cent of self-identified Republicans disapproved of Mr Trump's handling of the issue.

    Similarly, A YouGov-Economist poll of 1,680 citizens released on Tuesday found 79 per cent of Americans believe all case documents should be released.

    "It could be extremely damaging because he has these hardcore MAGA supporters who have been with him through thick and thin," Dr Melkonian said.

    "It's very dangerous for a politician to alienate that hardcore [base]."

    But experts have warned providing more daylight could be a poisoned chalice for the president.

    "For some portion of this set of conspiracy theory believers, no amount of contradictory evidence will ever be enough," said Josephine Lukito, who studies conspiracy theorists at the University of Texas at Austin.

    Dr Melkonian agreed that the Trump administration has found itself in a "very difficult catch 22".

    "[They've] convinced people that they're in a cover-up," he said. "No matter what they do, it's going to inflame this group of people.

    "Once they believe it, the more you deny that it exists, the more they're going to believe it."

    Matt Dallek, a political scientist at George Washington University, said it would be difficult for the Trump administration to wind back previous commentary on the conspiracy theory.

    "The faulty assumption Trump and others make is they can peddle conspiracy theories without any blowback," said Dr Dallek.

    "The Epstein case is a neat encapsulation that it is hard to put the genie back in the bottle."

    ABC/AP


    ABC




    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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