Iran’s missile mayhem show the limits of Middle East defences

The Israeli Operation Roaring Lion and the American Operation Epic Fury started early on Feb. 28 when both countries began attacking Iran. Their airstrikes killed Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while striking military targets and cities across the country. More than 700 people have reportedly been killed in the attacks so far, including children at a girls’ school.

Iran responded with its own Operation True Promise 4 missile and drone strikes against Israeli and American targets. But it also started bombarding nine other Middle East countries. Iran’s attacks to date have killed six U.S. soldiers, 10 civilians in Israel and about 10 more in Arab countries.

Iran’s allies have joined the fighting. Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militants in Iraq have launched their own rockets, while Houthi militants in Yemen have threated to enter the fray too.

Iran’s counterattacks might appear strategically reckless. But they’re sowing chaos across the region and revealing the limits of their neighbour’s defences.

Israel’s defences under strain

Israel has sophisticated missile defences and ample operational experience. Its Iron Dome short-range rocket interceptors entered service in 2011. The medium-range David’s Sling and long-range Arrow interceptors followed.

Its newest weapon is a laser system. Iron Beam saw its first combat use last year against drones and small rockets.

But interceptors aren’t foolproof, and they sometimes fail.

Iran’s newest weapons aggravate this problem. Some missiles reportedly carry dozens of small explosives instead of one big one. These little bomblets disperse while falling from the sky to complicate interception.

Israel has warning systems and bomb shelters to protect civilians from nearby explosions, but some residents lack immediate access to shelters. One woman died on Feb. 28 when a missile landed near her building before she could take cover.

Additionally, some older shelters were designed only to withstand smaller rockets. On March 1, a ballistic missile with a 500-kilogram warhead directly hit a shelter, killing nine people inside.

Spillover into Arab states

Iran’s Arab neighbours are accustomed to being bystanders during Israel-Iran conflicts. This time, however, Iran is attacking them too.

Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have all been assaulted by Iranian weapons. Some 282 missiles and 833 drones attacked those countries over the weekend, and the barrage remains ongoing.

Even a British airbase in Cyprus, far away in the Mediterranean, has been struck.

Iran claims it’s only targeting U.S. forces stationed in those countries. However, airports, hotels, apartment buildings and oil tankers have also been hit. Oman had recently hosted U.S.-Iran peace talks, and last week announced that peace was “within reach.”

Most of the countries have U.S.-made Patriot interceptor systems to defend against such attacks, but they lack Israel’s operational experience. The U.S. also has Patriot and THAAD interceptors in the region.

In one case, three U.S. Patriot air defence missiles failed to intercept an incoming Iranian ballistic missile warhead, which reportedly struck Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. And Kuwaiti air defences accidentally shot down three U.S. fighter jets.

Costly choices

Economic costs are growing too. With oil and gas refineries closing, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halted, global oil prices have jumped.

Read more: What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does its closure matter so much to the global economy?

Iran’s attacks beyond Israel have also prompted more countries to oppose it. Qatar shot down two Iranian fighter jets on March 2 and Britain has begun allowing U.S. airstrikes from British airbases. France is sending air defences to Cyprus and Ukraine is sending drone experts to Arab countries.

An uncertain future

It’s difficult to predict how long the attacks will continue. Iran is believed to have around 2,500 ballistic missiles stockpiled, including 1,000 that could strike Israel or perhaps Europe. Its drone supply is likely larger, meaning launches could continue for months.

U.S. and Israeli warplanes are actively hunting Iranian missile launchers, but past conflicts show airstrikes alone have little impact on launch rates. Those drop only if ground invasions occur.

It’s likewise unclear how long the American-Israeli bombing campaign will last. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested four to five weeks, maybe longer.

However, the U.S. military will likely start running out of interceptor missiles in four weeks. Qatar reportedly has only enough for four days.

Trump’s warplanes will probably run out of high-priority targets even sooner.

Trump’s political end game

The greatest uncertainty right now concerns Trump and his motives, as his war goals appear to keep shifting.

He has called for the Iranian people to “seize control” of their “destiny.” But Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said the operation is not intended to cause regime change.

Such a regime change is unlikely. Trump’s January attack on Venezuela merely captured the country’s president and left the rest of the regime in place. He showed more interest in Venezuela’s oil than its governance.

America’s previous regime change in Iran also didn’t end well. In 1953, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency incited a coup that removed Iran’s elected government and replaced it with a military regime that was friendly to U.S. but unpopular in Iran. In 1979, a revolt ended the dictatorship and installed the current Islamic Republic.

Trump has often favoured transactional diplomatic deals in the past. Whether this conflict moves toward escalation or negotiation remains unclear, but it’s likely he’ll seek do something similar here.

What is clear is that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the human and economic costs are likely to be.

Michael J. Armstrong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.