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30 Jan 2025 18:50
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  •   Home > News > Business

    Donald Trump said he'd end the Ukraine war in a day. This is why it's not that easy

    The US president says he has good relationships with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, but analysts say negotiating an end to the conflict is going to take much more than that.

    29 January 2025

    As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, there is a collective feeling of exhaustion across the country.

    A lot of people are asking: when will it end?

    While campaigning last year, US President Donald Trump repeatedly declared he would end the war "in one day".

    "I know [Ukrainian President Volodomyr] Zelenskyy well, I know [Russian President Vladimir] Putin well, I would get that ended in a period of 24 hours," he said in an interview with British broadcaster GB News last May.

    "One hundred per cent, it would be easy. That deal would be easy."

    Trump never said how he would do this, and many experts dismissed the claim as bluster.

    Then, as his second presidential stint edged closer, he backtracked on that self-imposed, one-day deadline — and suggested six months was more realistic.

    Earlier this month, his nominated envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg, told Fox News he had set a target to bring the war to an end in 100 days.

    But many analysts say that timeline is tight, too.

    How interested is Trump in ending this conflict?

    For all of the boasts about deals and deadlines, some of Trump's statements have led many Ukrainians to believe he would cut off US funding and support for their war-torn nation.

    The president's dislike for how much money the Biden administration handed over is well-known.

    "Every time Zelenskyy comes to the US he walks away with $100 billion. I think he's the greatest salesman on Earth," Trump said last September.

    During an interview with NBC's Meet the Press last month, Trump was asked whether Kyiv should prepare for less aid from Washington after he was sworn in.

    "Possibly," he said.

    "Yeah, probably. Sure".

    He then went on to reiterate his position that the European countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) were not spending enough on defence.

    According to NATO guidelines, member states should spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence.

    Many do, but some countries don't, including Italy, Portugal, Canada and Spain.

    Before re-entering the White House, Trump was vocal in his opposition to the outgoing administration's decision to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied long-range missiles at targets inside Russia, describing it as an "escalation".

    But retired General Ben Hodges told the ABC there were indications Trump was not just going to walk away from Ukraine.

    "I can envision some scenarios where President Trump would see a reason to help Ukraine win, not based on moral or ethical sort of considerations, but from a pure advantage," he said.

    "He's got a lot more leverage over Vladimir Putin now than he did eight years ago [when] he didn't even expect to win the election.

    "Now, he is in a much better place from a personal experience and political power standpoint, but Putin, eight years later, is in deep trouble now because of this war — economically, politically, you name it."

    Hodges said he was also "heartened" by the fact that those advising Trump on Ukraine, such as Kellogg and national security advisor Mike Waltz are both pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO.

    Last week, Trump said he wanted to meet with Putin as soon as possible.

    "I really would like to be able to meet with President Putin soon to get that war ended," Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos via video link.

    "And that's not from the standpoint of economy or anything else, it's from the standpoint of millions of lives are being wasted.

    "It's a carnage, and we really have to stop that war."

    He threatened to impose "high levels" of sanctions on Russia and tariffs on imports if Moscow did not reach a deal.

    Could Trump try to force Ukraine and Russia to make a deal?

    The day after Trump spoke at Davos, he took to social media, telling Russia: "Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal', and soon."

    "Let's get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better. It's time to 'MAKE A DEAL'."

    There is a fear among many Ukrainians that any deal brokered by Trump might try to make Kyiv cede territory to Russia.

    Ukraine's ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, told the ABC his country would never do that.

    "Not a single Ukrainian government will ever cede any territory in Ukraine, it's just impossible," Myroshnychenko said.

    "More so, we have to understand it's not the territory that Russia wants, Russia wants to destroy all the sovereignty, they want to destroy our statehood."

    Kyiv-based human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk, whose organisation the Centre for Civil Liberties in Ukraine won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, said finding an end to this was about much more than land.

    "It's not about territories. It's about people who live there. It's our families, it's our relatives, it's our neighbours, it's about human beings," Matviichuk told the ABC.

    "We will never return to the Russian empire."

    Myroshnychenko said he believed the only way to protect his country's sovereignty was for it to join NATO.

    It is something Zelenskyy has been lobbying hard for, but key NATO members such as the US and Germany have been resistant to, for fear of becoming ensnared in a war with Russia.

    NATO countries are supposed to consider an armed attack against one member "an attack against them all".

    "[NATO membership] is the only security guarantee Ukraine can get, because otherwise Russians will come back. They will replenish, regroup, and will mount another attack," Myroshnychenko said.

    "We want a lasting, comprehensive, and just peace. Russia has to be held accountable for their war crimes … and we need to have some guarantees for this war to be over to actually make sure and prevent it from happening in the future."

    Could a diplomatic solution be reached?

    Zelenskyy was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his election victory back in November.

    With the help of French President Emmanual Macron, Zelenskyy was then able to secure a meeting with the US president-elect on the sidelines of celebrations in Paris for the grand reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral last month.

    "I had a good and productive trilateral meeting with President Donald Trump and President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée Palace," Zelenskyy said on social media.

    "We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way."

    Trump has expressed a willingness to meet with Putin to discuss the conflict.

    Kyiv has previously voiced opposition to Western leaders interacting with the Russian leader, but it has not spoken out against the prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting.

    Sir Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London, told the ABC he thought "the key factor in all of this is how the Russians play it".

    "I think the [new Trump] administration will want to test Russian attitudes as much as they can, but that requires the Russians to be prepared to be tested," he said.

    On Monday, the Kremlin said was ready to organise a meeting between Putin and Trump.

    "So far, we have not received any signals from the Americans," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

    "Russia's readiness [for a meeting] remains, and the same readiness, as far as we have heard, remains on the American side.

    "Apparently, a certain amount of time is required [to set something up]."

    Is it all on the US to solve this?

    Since the war began, Washington has sent more aid to Ukraine than any other country.

    Trump's calls for NATO countries to boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP would more than double the security alliance's current spending targets.

    Matviichuk said it was in the interests of all countries, including Australia, to do more to help Ukraine.

    "Ukraine is not just a goal for Russia, Ukraine is a tool — how to break the international rules-based order, how to dictate the rules to the entire international community, and even forcibly change internationally recognised borders," she said.

    "And that's why Ukrainians are fighting, not just for ourselves, we are fighting for the international rules-based order established after the Second World War, which means that our fight is preventing the third one."

    Myroshnychenko, who greeted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong in Kyiv last month when Australia reopened its embassy there, said while Ukraine appreciated every dollar of Western aid, he described the funding as "drip drops".

    "There is just enough assistance for us not to fail, but we're not getting enough of that assistance to be able to prevail," he said.

    Zelenskyy has been firming up guarantees from key allies other than the US, while he waits to see what support from the Trump administration will look like.

    Earlier this month, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced an "historic" 100-year pact with Ukraine, which would include 3 billion pounds ($5.9 billion) of British support a year indefinitely, more training for Ukrainian soldiers, and mobile air-defence systems.

    Zelenskyy has previously asked for the UK, and other European allies such as France, to send peacekeeping troops when the war ends, but no commitments have been given.

    How long could the fighting continue?

    This month, Russia has gained ground in Ukraine faster than at any time during the war, and has launched sustained attacks on the country's energy infrastructure.

    At the same time, Kyiv has been keeping up its attacks.

    While neither country releases official death tallies, analysts said each side has sustained hundreds of thousands of casualties since Russia invaded in February 2022.

    The most recent months have been particularly deadly.

    Despite "the pressure on both sides", Professor Freedman said the fighting would continue until a diplomatic breakthrough has been achieved.

    "The best assessment is you carry on more or less as before with the Russians sort of grinding away, throwing people at the problem, and the Ukrainians struggling to cope because they haven't mobilised as effectively as the Russians," he said.

    "It's been difficult for the Ukrainians, there have been attacks on critical infrastructure and the Ukrainians have suffered from this, but it hasn't been as decisive as the Russians might have hoped."

    For the people of Ukraine, danger has been a feature of daily life for almost three years.

    "When we go to bed, we have no guarantees that we will get up next morning because the war is a lottery," Matviichuk said.

    "You have no idea which next residential building will be hit."


    ABC




    © 2025 ABC, NZCity


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